Why St. Louis Is Still a Seller’s Market in Late 2025 (Even at 7% Rates)

Written by David Dodge  

As of November 2025, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits stubbornly around 6.8–7.1%, a far cry from the sub-3% paradise of 2021. Conventional wisdom says that when rates climb this high, buyer demand should crater, inventory should flood back, and the balance of power should swing decisively toward buyers. That story has played out in many U.S. metros—Phoenix, Austin, Boise—but not in St. Louis. Here, the market remains unmistakably tilted in favor of sellers. Homes are still moving in weeks rather than months, multiple-offer situations remain common, and well-priced listings routinely sell at or above asking.

This isn’t hype; it’s data. Active listings in the St. Louis MSA are up only about 13.6% year-over-year (per BarbSellsSTL October 2025 report), yet total inventory still hovers around 2.8–3.2 months of supply—far below the 5–6 months considered “balanced.” Prices are up roughly 4% year-over-year citywide, and in certain pockets they’re climbing 8–12%. Buyers are competing, sellers are winning, and the gap between perception (a cooling national market) and reality (a still-red-hot local one) has rarely been wider.

So how is St. Louis bucking the national trend? Four main reasons: chronically tight inventory, resilient end-user demand, steady institutional and individual investor interest, and neighborhood-level dynamics that continue to drive premium pricing. Let’s break it down.

The Current Rate Environment—and Why It Hasn’t Killed the Market

Yes, rates are high. The average 30-year fixed crossed 7% again in late October 2025 and has flirted with that level ever since. In a textbook world, every 1% increase in rates knocks roughly 10–12% off borrowing power, which should translate directly into fewer qualified buyers and downward pressure on prices.

But textbooks didn’t account for the “lock-in effect.” Roughly 72% of St. Louis homeowners with a mortgage currently enjoy rates at or below 4% (national figure is similar, per Redfin and Black Knight data). Trading a 3.0% mortgage for a 7.0% one on the next house roughly doubles the monthly payment for the same purchase price. The result? A massive cohort of would-be sellers is simply refusing to move. Move-up buyers, empty-nesters, and relocating executives are staying put, keeping fresh inventory off the market and preserving the supply shortage that has defined St. Louis since 2021.

Inventory Remains Historically Tight

Let’s put numbers to it. In October 2025, the St. Louis metro had approximately 6,800 active single-family listings (BarbSellsSTL + Hermann London data combined). That sounds like a lot until you remember that pre-pandemic “normal” was closer to 11,000–12,000. At the current sales pace of roughly 2,200–2,400 closed sales per month, that’s under 3 months of supply.

To understand why that matters:

• 6+ months of supply = buyer’s market
• 5–6 months = balanced
• 4–5 months = leaning seller
• <4 months = strong seller’s market

St. Louis is deep in the red zone. Even with the modest year-over-year inventory increase, we’re still 40–50% below balanced levels. Fewer choices mean more buyers chasing the same homes, which translates directly into leverage for anyone lucky enough to be selling.

Demand Hasn’t Collapsed—It’s Just More Selective

You’ll hear pundits say “demand is dead” because pending sales are down 15–18% from the 2021–2022 frenzy. But context matters. Sales volume in 2025 is actually in line with 2017–2019 levels—perfectly healthy by historical standards. What has changed is velocity and competition, not the disappearance of buyers.

In May 2025, the median days-on-market in St. Louis County was 42 days (BarbSellsSTL). That’s up from 12 days in 2022, but still brisk. In the city proper, well-priced homes in desirable neighborhoods routinely go under contract in under 14 days and attract 3–8 offers. HouseSoldEasy.com tracked 41% of October listings selling at or above asking price—hardly the hallmark of a moribund market.

Who are these buyers? A mix of:

• Local move-up families are unwilling to wait another 2–3 years for rates to drop
• Relocating executives (Boeing, Centene, World Wide Technology, and the expanding geospatial sector keep bringing six-figure earners)
• Cash-heavy investors and 1099 buyers who aren’t rate-sensitive
• First-time buyers using FHA/VA or down-payment assistance programs that blunt some of the rate pain

Pricing Trends Continue Upward

House Sold Easy’s November 2025 report shows the median closed price in the St. Louis MSA rose 4.1% year-over-year to $295,000. In St. Louis County, the gain was 4.8%, and the City of St. Louis clocked in at +5.6%. These aren’t 2021’s 15–20% jumps, but they’re steady and meaningful appreciation in an environment where many analysts predicted flat or negative growth.

Drilling down to the neighborhood level tells an even stronger story for sellers:

• Kirkwood: Median sale price now ~$552,000 (+9.4% YoY). Homes under $600k routinely see 6–12 offers.
• Webster Groves: Median ~$465,000 (+7.2%). The school district effect remains powerful.
• Lafayette Square: Renovated townhomes routinely eclipse $700k; anything turnkey under $500k is gone in days.
• Tower Grove South: Classic brick architecture + proximity to the park + improving commercial corridor = median values pushing $315,000 (+11% YoY).
• Central West End private streets: Condos and single-family alike are trading 8–15% higher than in 2024.
• Emerging pockets like Benton Park West, Fox Park, and parts of South Hampton are seeing 10–14% annual gains as buyers priced out of Tower Grove spill over.

The pattern is clear: move-in-ready homes in walkable, character-rich neighborhoods are still commanding premiums and multiple offers.

Why This Dynamic Matters Right Now

For Sellers, if you’re sitting on a 2.75–3.5% mortgage, the decision to move is painful—but if life demands it (job transfer, growing family, downsizing, estate sale), the market is handing you extraordinary leverage. Well-priced, well-presented homes are selling in under 30 days and often 3–8% above list with clean inspection resolutions. Many sellers are netting $30k–$80k more than they would have in a balanced market.

For Buyers, Competition is real, but it’s not 2022 insanity. Get pre-approved with a strong local lender, be ready to move fast, and consider expanding your search to neighborhoods one ring out from the hottest areas (e.g., Maplewood instead of only Webster, St. Louis Hills instead of only Kirkwood). Fixer-uppers and estate sales remain the best pockets of relative value.

For Investors, Rental demand in St. Louis remains robust. Average rents for 2-bed apartments rose another 4.8% in 2025 (Cushman & Wakefield Q3 report), and vacancy sits at 5.2%. Cap rates have compressed slightly but still beat most Sunbelt alternatives when you factor in Missouri’s landlord-friendly laws and lower property tax burden. The combination of appreciation potential + cash flow + limited supply continues to draw both local and out-of-state capital.

Risks on the Horizon (Because No Market Is Bulletproof)

1. Rate shock: Another 75–100 bps increase without wage growth could finally tip psychology.
2. New construction: Multifamily pipeline has slowed dramatically (only ~2,800 units scheduled for 2026 delivery vs. 6,000+ in 2022), but any surprise ramp-up in single-family building could loosen supply.
3. Overpricing temptation: Some sellers see the 2025 comps and add an extra $50k “because it’s still a seller’s market.” Those homes sit and eventually sell for less than a realistically priced neighbor.

How Sellers Can Maximize Their Leverage Right Now

1. Price surgically. Use the most recent 30–60 day closed comps from your specific school district and style, not Zillow Zestimates.
2. Present impeccably. Professional photos, staging (even light staging), and pre-inspections separate the 5-offer listings from the ones that linger.
3. Create controlled competition. List on Thursday or Friday, schedule one weekend of showings, and set an offer deadline on Monday at 5 pm. Escalation clauses and highest-and-best rounds still work wonders.
4. Time strategically. November–January remains slower; if you can list in February–April 2026, you’ll catch the spring wave with even less competition.
5. Partner with an agent who lives and breathes St. Louis micro-markets. Someone who can tell you that Shrewsbury comps matter more than Richmond Heights for a certain price point, or that Kirkwood’s Merrifield Park area trades 8% higher than Old Orchard.

The Bottom Line

Rising rates have not flipped St. Louis into a buyer’s market because the underlying supply/demand imbalance remains extreme. Homeowners who need or want to sell in late 2025 and early 2026 are still operating in one of the most favorable windows in decades. Inventory is low, qualified buyers are active, and certain neighborhoods continue to see robust appreciation.

If you’ve been waiting for “the market to crash” before you list, you may be waiting a very long time. If life circumstances have you considering a move, the data says now—right now—is still an excellent time to maximize your equity and minimize your days on market.

Ready for a no-obligation market snapshot of exactly what your home would bring today? Reach out to the House Sold Easy team or visit housesoldeasy.com for an instant valuation and a conversation about timing. The window won’t stay this wide open forever, but as of November 2025, St. Louis sellers are still very much in the driver’s seat.

Sources:

• https://barbsellsstl.com
• https://housesoldeasy.com
• https://hermannlondon.com
• https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/united-states/insights/us-marketbeats/st-louis-marketbeats
• https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center
• https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/
• MARIS MLS (St. Louis regional multiple listing service – broker access only)

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